PRESIDENT Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is set to face the Filipino people in his third State Of the Nation Address (SONA) on Monday, July 22. But even before he delivers his speech to the nation and lets the public know what he has done in the past year, the people know the Philippines is in hot waters with China over its perennial dispute with Beijing over the West Philippine Sea alongside economic turmoil and quagmires involving the people inside the Palace.
On July 12, the Philippines marked the eighth anniversary after the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China’s expansive claims within its nine-dash-line were unlawful.
Despite this arbitral award, the public’s access to the West Philippine Sea remains a pie in the sky as China continuously harassed Filipino fishermen roaming around the disputed waters for the past eight years.
While international law acknowledges the right of the Philippines in the area, China refused to recognize the ruling which has worsened the standoff between the two countries since 2012 when China began to reclaim and establish artificial islands in Scarborough Shoal.
More than a decade after this incident, during which two presidents have completed their terms, the dispute under Marcos’ leadership continues at a sluggish pace, worsening day by day.
Aggression on familiar ground
Recently, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported that China Coast Guard (CCG) 5901, the world’s largest coast guard ship known as “The Monster,” remains anchored at Escoda Shoal
The shoal is situated 75 nautical miles, or approximately 140 kilometers, off the coast of Palawan, and is considered to be within the country’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Along with this, another China-flagged vessel is being monitored after it came within the EEZ and was moving away off the coast of Palawan on the day Beijing’s “monster ship is being monitored.”
This was the latest reported incident in the West Philippine Sea after the vicious skirmish last June 17 when CCG personnel armed with knives, spears, and bolos used loud sirens and bright lights to disrupt operations to the BRP Sierra Madre during a Navy supply mission in Ayungin.
They boarded Navy boats, destroyed equipment, and took disassembled firearms. One Philippine boat was damaged and a Filipino soldier lost a thumb in the clash.
Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, the Navy spokesperson, confirmed that China has not returned the seized weapons. This incident marks the most aggressive attack since the CCG intensified its blockade of the Sierra Madre and Ayungin with water cannons and dangerous maneuvers in recent months.
Prior to this clash with Chinese authorities, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accused the Philippines of repeatedly acting in bad faith by breaking commitments and agreements with China. Mao also claimed that the Philippines, under Marcos, often violated China’s rights, provoked incidents at sea, formed alliances with external forces particularly with the United States to exert influence in the disputed waters, and spread misinformation to tarnish China’s reputation internationally.
Mao made these remarks in response to questions following President Marcos’ speech at the 21st Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last May, where Marcos said that the South China Sea issue is now a global concern, not just a regional one.
Marcos, through the Department of Foreign Affairs, vowed to talk to China after this incident to discuss “confidence-building measures” but what’s the real score? Why does the Philippines still lag behind despite having laws that affirm its rights in the sea?
What is Marcos doing?
In January 2023, Marcos said during his state visit to China that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping “affirmed” to establish a “direct communication mechanism” to prevent possible miscommunication in the West Philippine Sea.
This communication line would be opened between the Maritime and Ocean Affairs Office of the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) and the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
But more than a year after the visit, China, through its foreign ministry spokesperson, has been making veiled allusions that the Philippines illegally occupy the Ayungin Shoal and has urged to remove the BRP Sierra Madre as it “gravely damaged the coral reef ecosystem” in the area.
This further escalates tensions between the two nations to a point where a resolution of the impending conflict seems unlikely.
Despite this, Marcos said that the country will refrain from using force, intimidation, or deliberately causing harm amid heightened hostilities in the disputed area.
“We are not in the business to instigate wars — our great ambition is to provide a peaceful and prosperous life for every Filipino. This is the drum beat — this is the principle that we live by, that we march by,” he said.
Chinese storms at sea, another Chinese debacle on the ground
Apart from China’s intrusion in the country’s maritime area, the increasing number of illegal Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) likewise hound the second year of Marcos’ leadership.
According to the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR), POGOs began operating in 2003, but it wasn’t until 2016, after Duterte took office, that the government started regulating online gaming hubs.
Recently, a series of illegal POGO hubs have been raided, with some allegedly linked to former Duterte appointees.
POGOs have been associated with criminal activities, including scam operations, human and sex trafficking, illegal immigration and employment, kidnapping, and other serious crimes.
Lawmakers have urged the national government to shut down POGO operations in the country. While some support this idea, economic officials have cited the projected revenue loss and job losses that would result from a complete ban on POGOs in the Philippines.
Marcos has remained silent on the issue, but what will the president do to ensure the security of his people now that it’s becoming a national security threat, as seen in the unfolding case of suspended Bamban, Tarlac Mayor Alice Guo?
Marcos battles PH’s troubled economy
Besides the West Philippine Sea, Marcos’ presidency is also hurdled by his battle against economic turmoil including inflation, unemployment, and rising basic commodity prices.
Two years into his presidency, Marcos is still grappling with inflation and underlying socio-economic issues, exacerbated by the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Earlier this month, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the country’s headline inflation decelerated to 3.7 percent in June from 3.9 percent in May due to lower energy and transportation costs but Filipinos are still bearing the brunt of high food prices as food inflation continues to soar.
Food inflation, which measures the price changes of household food items, increased to 6.5 percent in June from 6.1 percent in May. This was largely due to higher vegetable and meat prices, affected by the rainy season and rising cases of African swine fever, the PSA said.
Inflation in the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector also went up from 5.8 percent in May to 6.1 percent in June, driven by faster price increases in vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses.
In January, Marcos promised to boost agriculture and food production to ensure that the prices of basic goods and commodities would remain affordable. But over a week ago, a farmers’ group expressed concern that food prices continue to be the main driver of the country’s inflation rate.
“The overall unaffordable rice prices nationwide remain as the primary cause of faster inflation in the country,” said Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas chair Danilo Ramos in a report.
Marcos’ promise during the May 2022 campaign elections was to lower the price of rice to P20 per kilo, but it remains a pipe dream to this day.
Farmers attribute the high cost of food to the Department of Agriculture’s Executive Order (EO) No. 62, which lowers tariff rates on agricultural imports, including rice, from 35 percent to 15 percent.
According to Ramos the EO will only benefit importers, traders, and hoarders, and not the farmers
The DA then debunked these allegations and said it does not aim to set aside local production of Filipino farmers, but to ensure affordable prices of imported commodities.
However, in July, just weeks after Marcos signed the EO, several farmers’ groups filed a petition for certiorari and prohibition before the Supreme Court declared EO 62 void and unconstitutional.
Awaiting the high court’s decision the groups want a temporary restraining order, arguing that the EO threatens to devastate the entire agriculture sector.
Reduced tariffs, said the farmers’ groups, unfairly penalize local producers, adversely impact consumers, and reduce government revenues.
The crumbling kingdom
As the DA he once held face shambles, the bigger kingdom he was so eager to win back years ago starts to crumble.
Everything was a dream come true after the “UniTeam” duo composed of Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte won a landslide victory during the 2022 elections.
But as the old adage goes, “It was good while it lasted.” The public started questioning the status of the “BBM-Sara” tandem after former president Rodrigo Duterte called Marcos “bangag” which can be decoded as someone who is “high on drugs” and Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte urged the chief executive to step down in his post during a rally in Davao last January which coincided with the “Bagong Pilipinas” inauguration.
The strain mounted between the Dutertes and the Marcoses further after first lady Liza Araneta-Marcos came into the picture.
Speculation arose that Araneta-Marcos was snubbing the vice president after footage from President Marcos Jr.’s departure ceremony to Vietnam in January showed the two women apparently avoiding each other.
This was followed by another snubbing incident after their Prague trip in March. In April, the first lady admitted that she indeed snubbed Duterte, and months after, in June, Duterte had spoken and told reporters that the “Uniteam” tandem was good only for the 2022 elections and announced her resignation from her post as Secretary of the Department of Education (DepEd).
Just as the public thought it was the end of the friction between the two leaders, Duterte recently said she quipped and designated herself as the “designated survivor” shortly after she announced skipping Marcos’ third SONA.
A “designated survivor” is a government official chosen to stay in a secure location during key political events like the State of the Union Address in the United States to ensure the continuity of leadership should a catastrophic event incapacitate the top leaders.
Her remark received flak online and from her colleagues saying the second-highest leader should not joke about being a designated survivor.
Marcos has yet to respond to Duterte’s remarks, but some officials have indicated that her comments suggest the Uniteam alliance has been severed.
Meanwhile, nearly two years after Marcos’ former general campaign manager and Executive Secretary Vic Rodriguez left his post, Rodriguez released a book titled “Kingmaker: The Hardcopy” where the former mouthpiece talked about his experiences as one of the key officials in the restoration of the Marcoses in Malacañang.
In an exclusive sit-down interview with the former Marcos official, he said that the book answers and debunks all the speculations and allegations made against him, including his relationship with the First Lady that led Rodriguez to leave his post.
The secret banquet
During the launching, Rodriguez also confirmed the public’s question surrounding the alleged secret meetings of Araneta-Marcos and the Smartmatic president Roger Piñate in the weeks leading up to the May 9, 2022 elections “along Osmeña highway.”
Rodriguez claimed that while he knew about the meeting with Smartmatic, he was not there and had no idea what the first lady and the Smartmatic executive were talking about but said the meeting was “improper.”
He also hit back at the allegations that he profited from selling appointment papers when in fact it was actually the First Lady who allegedly held the list of the people she wanted to become part of the Marcos cabinet.
So many questions await the president’s answers in his third SONA. Will the chief executive address them in his speech? What information is the public still unaware of?
