MANILA, Philippines – JUST as escalations of tensions in the West Philippine Sea give anyone an idea that a war could loom between and among world powers, with the Philippines in the middle, an armed conflict with anyone is the last thing China would want to happen, said retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio.
“The last thing China will do is declare war because then the U.S will come in. The last thing they want is for the US to intervene,” Carpio said in an ambush interview during his discussion of the West Philippine Sea before members of the Rotary Club of Manila last August 8.
This is because modern warfare, unlike previous world wars, now involves the use of nuclear weapons, the most destructive types of weapons capable of wiping out entire cities causing global climate changes and even widespread famine.
“For them declaring war is stupid because if there will be a nuclear war, not a single Chinese will survive because the US has 5500 nuclear bombs, China has only 500,” he said.
How far can the US go for the Philippines?
Any external threat to the Philippines could invoke its Mutual Defense Treaty with the US, the 73-year old bilateral agreement reaffirming each other’s commitment to come to the other’s defense in cases of external threats. The Philippine government has always relied on this agreement but will the US really go to war for its longest ally?
Under the MDT, an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of their public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces including Coast Guards would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V.
If so, how far will the US go for the Philippines?
“Well that’s a big question mark,” Carpio said.
“If the US does not honor its treaty, nobody will believe the US. Japan will say we cannot trust the US, South Korea will say (we cannot trust the US), even Europe will say if the US cannot honor its treaty to the Philippines how can they honor their treaty with us,” he said.
As a consequence then if the US dishonors defense agreements, treaty partners could drop the super power or still keep it as a defense ally but won’t depend on it any longer.
“What’s the lesson? To protect yourself, you must have nuclear weapons. South Korea will develop, Japan will develop. The world will be full of countries with nuclear weapons,” he said.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his recent visit to Manila had assured the Philippines of US support in its fight for its maritime claims affirming America’s “ironclad” security commitments to the Philippines.
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